Timor faces new rebellion

The Age

Lindsay Murdoch
September 2, 2006

AUSTRALIAN security forces hunting Alfredo Reinado, who led a mass escape from Dili's jail this week, should know that the rebel leader has XXX tattooed across the back of his neck.

Reinado sees himself as Xander Cage, the extreme sports athlete and fearless adrenaline junkie in the 2002 cult movie XXX.

"I don't care if I die tomorrow," Reinado said after he fired the first shots in a bloody revolt that plunged East Timor into crisis in May.

Dili should have been awash with joy and celebration on the day Reinado escaped — it was the seventh anniversary of East Timor's courageous vote to split from Indonesia — but there was only a small beachfront concert for street kids to mark the date.

Three months after Reinado's shots rang out on the hillside above the jail from which he escaped, East Timor's political factions are regrouping behind the scenes and plotting their next moves in a bitter power struggle that could erupt again into violence, a number of well-informed figures said this week.

Prime Minister Jose Ramos Horta concedes wearily that the political problems that plunged the country into crisis in April, May and June have not been solved.

Speaking from his thatched villa overlooking Dili harbour, Mr Ramos Horta says it is possible for the country to hold violence-free elections due in April next year but only through "strong international assistance and the role of the church and other leaders". But he warns that "obviously there is no guarantee".

Reinado's escape with 56 other prisoners, including eight of his highly trained men, on Wednesday came just days after Vincente da Concecao, a former guerilla fighter who likes to be called "Commander Railos" fled into the country's western mountains as the Office of Prosecutor-General was about to issue a warrant for his arrest for possession of illegal weapons.

Like Reinado, Railos is a dangerous man to be on the run, having also led his men into a firefight on Dili's outskirts in May.

His sensational allegations that he set up a hit squad to eliminate then prime minister Mari Alkatiri's political opponents led to Mr Alkatiri being forced from office.

Opposition Leader Mario Carrascalao says that Railos, whom he knows well, has been mishandled by the Government.

"Railos feels frustrated. He provided information to help solve the problem but they were going to arrest him," Mr Carrascalao says. "So he is forced to run into the jungle. Will he stay quiet there? I don't think so. I think he will gather support and strength and will become a big problem for the Government."

The possibility that Reinado, who has probably also fled into the western coffee-growing mountains, and Railos and their men could come together to form a renegade force is a nightmare scenario for the commanders of international troops and police in Dili, who have been struggling to control gang violence and have failed to convince 70,000 people living in makeshift refugee camps that it is safe enough for them to return to their homes.

Like Xander Cage, whose mission was to save the world, Reinado apparently wants to save East Timor and is prepared to inflame people's fears and passions to get his way. Within hours of his escape he was circulating a letter calling on East Timorese to rise up in a people-power revolution.

The escape shattered the illusion that hundreds of international police and troops now deployed in Dili have brought peace to the tiny half-island nation of just over a million mostly impoverished people.

Shops and markets are open and doing brisk business; Australian police wearing neatly pressed uniforms have got the traffic mess sorted out; fewer armoured personnel carriers are rumbling through the streets; tourists are making spectacular dives off the coast and laughing children play soccer each evening on beachfront fields.

And the UN Security Council has agreed to send — before the elections — 1600 international police, 34 military liaison officers and about 500 civilian personnel who will complement international troops already in Dili, including 1500 Australians. But a Western analyst in Dili says the forces are just keeping protagonists apart.

"The bad blood, grudges and dirty politics are still there, just below the surface," the analyst says. Fretilin, the ruling party which holds 55 of the 86 seats in Parliament, appears to be fracturing as the combative and unpopular Mr Alkatiri vows to lead the party to an "unimaginable" win at the elections.

The party's top officials were stunned and angered by Mr Alkatiri's removal from office. It remains unclear whether reformists led by former UN ambassador and now foreign minister Jose Luis Guterres will attempt to topple Alkatiri loyalists and lead the party into the elections.

Security forces fear a violent backlash by Mr Alkatiri's enemies if the Office of Prosecutor-General fails to charge him over the Railos hit squad allegations. But they also fear a backlash from elements within Fretilin if Alkatiri is charged. "It's a no-win situation regarding Alkatiri," the analyst says.

Youth worker Jose Sousa-Santos says gangs of unemployed youths responsible for sporadic violence are being manipulated for political and criminal purposes. "The kids are a very buyable commodity," Mr Sousa-Santos says. Two rival martial-arts gangs have memberships of more than 30,000 each throughout the country. Other gangs are run by criminals controlling prostitution, drugs and other crime.

Mr Ramos Horta says renegade police are manipulating the gangs. "Few of these police elements have been captured. Certain people are using the absence of law and order to settle old scores."

Some of the former police are believed to possess high-powered weapons looted from the armoury of the 3200-strong police force that disintegrated amid the May violence.

Dan Murphy, an American doctor who has worked in Dili since 1998, warns that the health of people in the refugee camps is deteriorating.

"The people tell me that this is their most worrying and depressing time since they gained their independence," he says. "The rains will come soon and living in the camps will quickly become unsustainable. There have already been preventable deaths in the camps. What is being done to get them back to their homes, if they happen to have one left standing? Very little."

Celestinho da Costa-Alves manages a refugee camp near Dili's main wharf whose 2600 residents from eastern parts of the country have been frequently attacked by gangs from western parts.

"Every time our people leave and try to return to their homes they are attacked," Mr da Costa-Alves says. "The Government has told us to leave here because there has been trouble but where are we to go?"

Mr Ramos Horta says he understands people's fears. Since taking office two months ago he has shaken up the country's lethargic bureaucracy.

Business people say permits are now being issued in hours not days, containers are moving quickly off the wharves and corruption appears curbed.

On trips to the mountains, the Prime Minister stops and gives money to the poor. He makes surprise visits to government offices, refugee camps, charities, and UN and non-government organisations. He has steered a $A410 million budget through Parliament, a record for a country in which the average annual income is $A485. Mr Ramos Horta has emerged as the person many East Timorese see as their saviour at another terrible moment in the country's history, and he feels committed to helping solve East Timor's problems.

"I would rather retire and take it easy on a beach somewhere," he says. "But it might be important for me to be here … I'm not saying that I am the best person, but I am one of the very, very few with the trust of the people."
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