Se Rudd for PM é um bom augúrio para o Pacífico

Tradução da Margarida:

The Nation (Papua Nova Guiné) – Quarta-feira Agosto 22, 2007
Por Dr Tim Anderson

Que diferença trará a eleição do líder do Labor Kevin Rudd, como próximo primeiro-ministro da Austrália, para os seus vizinhos do Pacífico? Haverá mudanças significativas ou apenas mais do mesmo?

Ao contrário das por vezes tumultuosas mudanças democráticas noutros sítios, as eleições Australianas são assuntos calmos. Mas sondagens consistentes dizem-nos que está prestes a ocorrer em Canberra uma versão limitada de “mudança de regime” .

A equipa de Rudd “vendeu-se” a si própria com sucesso, e os grupos de investimentos, companhias mineiras e media corporativa que dominam a política Australiana – apesar do seu anterior apoio acrítico ao primeiro-ministro John Howard – aceitam de um modo geral a mudança proposta. O magnata dos media Rupert Murdoch deu-lhe mesmo a sua benção pessoal depois de Rudd o ter visitado em Nova Iorque.

Não foi pequeno o papel que jogou no sucesso da equipa de Rudd a brutalidade do opositor.

Era difícil manter a legitimidade doméstica face às privatizações impopulares, guerra sangrenta, política racista com imigrantes e refugiados, e ataques domésticos a direitos civis e industriais.

Não é bonita a semelhança da herança do Pacífico

Ao mesmo tempo que pregava “boa governação” e segurança na região, a intervenção e a corrupção foram marcas da administração Howard.

A intervenção regional esteve ligada a interesses comerciais e estratégicos, mas explicada em nome de “estabilidade” e “assistência”.

A intervenção Ramsi nas Ilhas Solomão, apesar de ter sido inicialmente por convite, levou a um novo colapso nas relações entre os governos Australianos e das Ilhas Salomão.

A intervenção de 2006 em Timor Leste, no seguimento de um longo conflito sobre rendimentos do petróleo e do gás, afrontaram o maior partido político.

A Fretilin agora na oposição, acusa a Austrália de apoiar um golpe.

E o planeado Programa de Cooperação Reforçada para a Papua Nova Guiné (PNG) entrou em colapso depois de o Tribunal Supremo da Papua Nova Guiné ter descartado as imunidades inconstitucionais que procuraram obter para funcionários Australianos.

Sob o patrocínio de Alexander Downer dos negócios estrangeiros e comércio, o Australian Wheat Board (AWB) pagou pessoalmente perto de A$300 milhões em subornos ao regime de Saddam Hussein, para assegurar no período pré-invasão, contratos de trigo.

Como mostrou uma investigação oficial, depois Downer defendeu o caso da participação Australiana na invasão ilegal do Iraque, com a base de que o apoio para a guerra liderada pelos USA beneficiaria “a posição comercial da Austrália no Iraque”.

O que aconteceu é que a revelação do escândalo da AWB permitiu que os USA pressionassem completamente os fornecedores de trigo Australianos para fora do mercado Iraquiano.

Líderes vizinhos foram tratados com desprezo.

Quando o Primeiro-Ministro da PNG Sir Michael Somare foi forçado a descalçar os sapatos no aeroporto de Brisbane, Downer afirmou que era uma “operação vulgar” que se aplicava a “toda a gente”.

Contudo, quando o vice-presidente dos USA Dick Cheney chegou à Austrália, mudaram as leis do Estado do dia para a noite, a pedido de Howard e Downer, para possibilitar que os guarda-costas de Cheney usassem as suas armas através do aeroporto e nas ruas de Sydney.

Depois quando o primeiro-ministro das Ilhas Salomão, Manasseh Sogavare tentou nomear o advogado Australiano Julian Moti como Procurador-Geral, Canberra e a polícia federal Australiana decidiram marginalizar Moti com acusações de que se tinha engajado em sexo com crianças em Vanuatu.

De facto, Moti tinha sido inocentado de todas as acusações e não era procurado em Vanuatu. O seu crime verdadeiro, parece, foi ter aconselhado uma investigação ao papel da polícia Australiana nos distúrbios de Abril de 2006 em Honiara.

Quando Moti passava em Port Moresby, o Governo da PNG não alinhou com um pedido de extradição Australiano e optou por deportá-lo para as Ilhas Salomão, Howard e Downer viraram-se depois contra o Governo da PNG.

Com um historial destes, a maioria dos Australianos e os seus vizinhos do Pacífico estão desejosos de ver as costas de Howard.

Na verdade, a mudança de regime em Canberra no mínimo traz a perspectiva de algumas caras novas, e talvez de uma mudança de tom na conversa.

Rudd e o seu ministro sombra dos negócios estrangeiros Robert McClelland podem bem dar um passo atrás no racismo visível que caracterizou o regime Howard-Downer, que disse descaradamente aos governos vizinhos o que era bom para eles.

Esta mudança de tom pode vir a reflectir-se nalgumas mudanças políticas actuais, por exemplo no regresso no ensino de línguas Asiáticas em escolas Australianas, e num aumento de bolsas de estudo da AusAID.

Rudd tem falado de um “Plano Colombo do Pacífico”, sugerindo números significativos de bolsas de estudo.

Também indicou um aumento planeado do orçamento da AusAID, de 0.3% para 0.5% do PIB para 2015-16.

A maior parte disto, como sabemos, regressará como “ajuda bumerangue” para a meia dúzia de companhias Australianas que são as “contratadoras preferidas” da AusAID.

Apesar disso, o dinheiro da ajuda é claramente um meio central por meio do qual Rudd espera salvar a influência Australiana. Ele reconhece os estragos que Howard tem provocado, ao falar de um “movimento a longo prazo na postura estratégica da Austrália nesta região” e ao expressar um desejo de controlar o “anti-Australianismo” e de evitar “intervenções militares caras”.

O que é que isto na prática pode significar?

Pode incluir aumento da intervenção.

O partido de Rudd fala agora de uma “retirada por estágios” de tropas do Iraque, mas um aumento no Afganistão e no Pacífico, incluindo possivelmente Timor-Leste.

O orçamento da Polícia Federal Australiana no Pacífico já quase que excede o seu orçamento doméstico, mas Rudd prometeu-lhe ainda mais recursos.

Será visada a ajuda na educação. Rudd seguirá provavelmente Howard nos planos para aumentar as bolsas de estudo para Timor.-Leste, agora que as tropas Australianas ajudaram a marginalizar a Fretilin.

Devido às relações geladas de Howard com o governo de Alkatiri, as bolsas de estudo para universidades Australianas para estudantes Timorenses caíram de 20% por ano para apenas 8% por ano. Podem aumentar agora.

McClelland, que será o provável novo ministro dos estrangeiros num governo de Rudd, tem falado do desejo do Labor de treinar “uma nova geração de jovens líderes” de Timor-Leste, PNG,Ilhas Salomão e Fiji, mais leais à Austrália.

Isto traz-nos de volta às continuidades entre Howard e Rudd. Podemos esperar que como primeiro-ministro Rudd continue a apoiar as companhias mineiras Australianas e a trabalhar contra competidores potenciais, no Mar de Timor e na PNG.

Será hostil a planos para desenvolver capacidades de processamento de gás em Timor-Leste e na PNG, se não estiverem envolvidas companhias Australianas.

Rudd provavelmente continuará a oposição de Howard e Downer a programas de treino de saúde e à saúde Cubana na região, mas a oposição manter-se-à em privado porque a Austrália não consegue competir.

Timor-Leste já tem um dos sistemas de saúde de mais rápido crescimento do mundo, graças largamente à generosidade Cubana.

As relações com a China são de outra categoria por causa do seu poder económico.

Rudd, que fala Chinês, tem dito que procurará um maior engajamento com a China e que ao mesmo tempo manterá a aliança forte com os USA.

Uma outra continuidade mais, será o apoio de Rudd ao “mercado aberto” ou à abordagem da agricultura orientada para a exportação .

Isto é ditado pelas ambições globais dos negociantes agrícolas Australianos.

Nesta base, a Austrália recusou ajudar a reconstruir a produção de arroz de Timor-Leste depois de 1999, mesmo apesar de não vender arroz a esse país.

A Austrália tem exportações substanciais de arroz para a PNG, e tipicamente não apoia programas da semente mais importante.

Um governo Labor liderado por Rudd não será rápido a meter-se na questão dos “trabalhadores migrantes”, por causa de receios dos sindicatos.

Um atalho possível pode vir para trabalhadores especializados no sector mineiro.

A solução mais simples, obviamente, será estender aos jovens do Pacífico os vistos aos viajantes de mochila agora oferecidos aos jovens “turistas trabalhadores” de países mais ricos como Grã-Bretanha, Alemanha e Coreia do Sul.

Contudo o racismo residual no sistema de imigração Australiano pode tornar isto difícil.

Como diz Rudds, ele “escutará” o que diz a região.

Em relação a isto, o seu passado como diplomata e linguista dá-lhe alguma vantagem.

Contudo sendo um tecnocrata – que choraminga mais contra os métodos do que contra os objectivos de Howard – pode ser esperado que mantenha o apoio a todos os interesses comerciais importantes e estratégicos apoiados por Howard.

A pressão e influência provavelmente será menos grosseira e menos pública, mas de certo modo mais guiada pelo livro de cheques e mais “sala dos fundos”.

Nota: O autor é um professor académico senior de Economia Política na Universidade de Sydney

Dos Leitores

Bibere deixou um novo comentário na sua mensagem "UNMIT – MEDIA MONITORING - Thursday, 23 August 200...":

The current vice Prime minister, Jose Luis Guterres does not represent the FRETILIN vote. He along with other "FRETILIN mundansa" publicly campaigned for CNRT during the election.

Therfore their votes are with the CNRT vote. To say that he represents FRETILIN is an insult to the party and the people that voted for them. Jose Luis Gutterres should be ashamed to have taken the position and to even suggest he represents the FRETILIN vote.

Two killed in latest E Timor violence

ABC News
23.08.2007

Two people have been killed in another outbreak of violence in East Timor.

United Nations police say the pair were killed at Ermera in the country's west - in what is understood to be ongoing political violence against the appointment of Xanana Gusmao as Prime Minister.

In a separate incident, 10 houses were torched at Metinaro east of Dili, when up to 300 men armed with machetes, bows and steel darts, began fighting this morning.

And in Dili police fired tear gas to control fighting in several incidents this afternoon.

Several people have been arrested.

Prime Minister Gusmao has since invited some Fretilin party members to join his coalition government - in an apparent move to defuse the political tensions.

UNMIT – MEDIA MONITORING - Thursday, 23 August 2007

"UNMIT assumes no responsibility for the accuracy of the articles or for the accuracy of their translations. The selection of the articles and their content do not indicate support or endorsement by UNMIT express or implied whatsoever. UNMIT shall not be responsible for any consequence resulting from the publication of, or from the reliance on, such articles and translations."

National Media Reports

F-FDTL: ready to have dialogue with Petitioners and Alfredo

The Secretary of State and Military and Defence, Julio Thomas Pinto has confirmed that the F-FDTL is ready to have dialogue with the petitioners and Alfredo Reinado and his men.

“F-FDTL is always open to have dialogue with petitioners and Alfredo Reinado Alves and his followers,” said Mr. Julio on Tuesday (21/8) in Government Palace, Dili.

He said that the F-FDTL is ready to talk to try and solve the problems in the country. (TP)

New government starts discussing IDPS’ problems

The new government led by Prime Minister, Xanana Gusmão in the meeting of council ministers on Wednesday has begun discussing the IDP problem.

“We discussed many issues to keep an eye on the emergency situation in the eastern part of the country concerning IDPs and the Government will examin the problems,” said Vice Prime Minister, José Luis Guterres after meeting.

He also said that the government continues to provide humanitarian assistance to the victims of violence that broke out in Baucau, Lautem and Viqueque districts. (TP)

Xanana: Fretilin’s member will be involved in the government

The Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão has declared that the Alliance government will include some members of Fretilin in the government’s structure.

Speaking to the journalists after the meeting of council ministers on Wednesday (22/8) in government palace, Mr. Gusmao said that he will consult with Fretilin members to ensure they are involved in the alliance government.

“I will not name those Fretilin members who will be included in the government’s structure, as it is better you ask the Vice Prime Minister and Fretilin representative Jose Luis Guterres,” said Mr. Gusmão.

“I know that our Prime Minister, Mr. Gusmão has sent some letter to Fretilin’s leaders to ask some members to take part in the government,” said Mr. Guterres. (TP)

Emergency assistance lost in the mid way

The emergency support distributed to the eastern part of the country, Baucau, Lautem and Viqueque districts a week ago, did not reach the victims.

“Some got lost mid-way or did not reach the victims because the location of the victims is difficult to reach,” said Ms. Antonia Carmen da Cruz, the Director of Social National Services on Tuesday (21/8) in Caicoli, Dili.

According to Ms. Carmen, the number of the victims is large and includes victims of sexual assault.

Separately, the CNRT parliamentary member Paulo de Fatima Martins informed that the emergency supports to the victims in the eastern parts of the country has been insufficient. (TP)

Government to reform F-FDTL’s standpoint

The Secretary of State and Defence, Julio Thomas Pinto affirmed that government led by Prime Minister, Kayrala Xanana Gusmão will reform the F-FDTL to professional standards.

“The reformation is not focused on the Falintil veterans; there are many veterans that have a vision for how to develop the military. It is very important to reform the mentality from that of a guerilla mentality to a professional mentality,” said Mr. Pinto.

He added that government will also make a special study on the military’s ability to vote in elections. (TP)

RENETIL to monitor activities of the parliament

The Resistencia National do Estudantes Timor0-Leste/ National Resistance of Students of Timor Leste (RENETIL) has commended monitoring the new parliament.

Speaking to journalists on Wednesday (22/8) in Dili RENETIL’s Coordinator, Eurico Nelson de Carvalho stated that the RENETIL’s role is to monitor things such as participation, quality of participation, decision making mechanisms and parliamentary ethics.

Mr. Eurico said that the national parliament represents all Timorese people in the process of legislation, supervision and political decisions. (TP)

Xanana’s governmental cabinet not completed yet

Although the Alliance’s government was sworn in on 8 August, there still remains some ministry and state secretary positions that have not been filled.

Speaking to journalist on Tuesday (21/8) in Government Palace, Dili the vice Prime Minister José Luis Guterres said that the Prime Minister Gusmão will find people to fill the positions but did not comment on who they would be. (STL)

ISF 20km away when dialogue with Alfredo held

Alfredo Reinado has told the Government that the International Stabilization Forces (ISF) should 20km away from where any talks may be held.

Mr. Reinado has also called on the ISF not to conduct helicopter and ground patrols near the place of dialogue.

Reinado’s lawyer, Benevides Correia Barros said on Wednesday (22/8) at the Hotel Timor in Dili said that it’s important that the ISF, UNPol and PNTL fulfill the president’s request in halting the operation against his client.

He also said it should be guaranteed that when Reinado does come to talk, that he is not captured. (STL)

UN agencies condemn violence against children

The United Nations Agencies in Timor-Leste together with national and international NGO have condemned the violence against children in the country..

The agencies include UNICEF, Catholic Relief Service (CRS), FORUM NGO Timor-Leste, IOM, European Commission Humanitarian Aid Office (ECHO), UNMIT, TIMOR AID and Care International.

The condemnation is done through the joint declaration which calls on all Timorese people including political parties, authorities and the members of community to protect children from the violence and physical threat and to promote childrens’ right to peace.

These agencies note with concern the violence in the eastern part of the country that resulted in children becoming the victims during violent protests.

The agencies also proposed to the authorities to arrest the perpetrators that have been violent. (STL)

Cipriana Pereira: Fretilin militants complicated with the Alliance government

The Fretilin parliamentary member Cipriana Pereira said that Fretilin’s militants in the rural areas specifically in sub-district Atauro are concerned about the alliance government led by Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão.

Speaking to journalist on Wednesday (22/8), Ms. Pereira said that the people from Atauro sub-district are concerned the alliance is unconstitutional. (DN)

UNMIT - Security Situation - Thursday 23 August 2007

This is a broadcast of the UN Police in Timor-Leste to provide you with information about the security situation around the country.


The security situation in Timor-Leste as a whole has been stable, although there were serious incidents in Metinaro and Ermera today.

There was a fight in Metinaro this morning involving 100 - 300 people armed with machetes, steel darts and bows. Formed Police Units (FPUs) and the International Stabilization Force (ISF) managed to control the situation, but the market was almost completely destroyed in the fighting. Three people were arrested. Latest reports indicate that trouble has flared up again this afternoon, and that ten houses and a motorcycle have been set on fire. The police and the fire brigade are in attendance.

In Ermera, there are reports of a confrontation this afternoon in Ducarai village and Laucau sub-village in which two people were killed. There is no further information at this stage.

Today in Dili, UNPol attended eight incidents. This afternoon, large groups were engaged in sporadic fighting in the vicinity of Surik Mas and Bairo Pite. Police have been in attendance and have fired tear gas to control the crowds. Six people have been arrested so far.

Separately, a fire was also reported near the Comoro round about, which was extinguished with only minor damage to the property. A small fight near Bebonuk primary school was also brought under control by police.

United Nations police officers in conjunction with the national police of Timor-Leste (PNTL) and the International Stabilisation Force (ISF) remain fully deployed to respond to any disturbances that may emerge.

The Police advise to avoid traveling during the night to the most affected areas. Please report any suspicious activities. You can call 112 or 7230365 to contact the police 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

Timor: Questão humanitária depende melhoria situação política

Diário Digital / Lusa
22-08-2007 14:43:00

O Alto-comissário da ONU para os Refugiados apontou hoje a existência de «questões humanitárias» em Timor-Leste decorrentes da tensão que se vive no país, defendendo que só uma evolução positiva da «situação política» poderá contribuir para as debelar.

«Espero que a situação política permita resolver rapidamente as questões humanitárias e de protecção que se têm posto à população timorense. Como sempre, nos problemas humanitários a solução nunca é humanitária», disse António Guterres, em declarações à agência Lusa, no final de um encontro com o Presidente moçambicano, Armando Guebuza.

Observando que actualmente «não há refugiados de Timor», mas apenas «algum deslocamento interno por causa de questões de insegurança», António Guterres reforçou que para ultrapassar os problemas existentes «a solução é sempre política».

«Quando os problemas políticos se resolvem, os problemas humanitários deixam de existir», defendeu.

Cerca de 5.000 pessoas estão deslocadas e concentradas em pelo menos oito campos temporários no leste de Timor-Leste devido à violência que afectou a região durante a qual foram queimadas mais de 320 casas.

As maiores concentrações temporárias de deslocados localizam-se nas montanhas de Viqueque, onde estão cerca de mil pessoas, enquanto centenas de outras estão em vários pontos da cidade, na costa sudeste do país e cerca de um milhar no quartel da polícia em Uatu Carbau.

Os distúrbios em Timor-Leste, que atravessa uma crise política desde Abril de 2006, foram desencadeados no dia 13, quando o Presidente timorense, José Ramos-Horta, designou como primeiro-ministro Xanana Gusmão, do Conselho Nacional para a Reconstrução de Timor-Leste (CNRT), e não o candidato da Fretilin, o partido vencedor das eleições de 30 de Junho.
Xanana Gusmão dirige uma coligação de quatro formações políticas que controla 37 dos 65 lugares do novo parlamento de câmara única, enquanto que a Fretilin, embora vencedora nas eleições, apenas obteve 21 deputados.

No final da sua visita de quatro dias a Moçambique, António Guterres manifestou ainda o «apreço e gratidão» da agência das Nações Unidas a que preside pela «política exemplar de generosidade e de solidariedade do Estado e do povo moçambicano relativamente àqueles que procuram abrigo» no país.

«Estamos a trabalhar muito activamente para clarificar quem é e quem não é refugiado para que os refugiados possam ser eficazmente protegidos, mas também para que ninguém possa usar abusivamente dessa condição para abusar da hospitalidade do povo moçambicano», especificou.

O ex-primeiro-ministro português prometeu ainda «apoiar a fundo» o programa do governo moçambicano destinado a reforçar a capacidade de integração e de auto-sustento dos refugiados, bem como «projectos que estão a ser preparados nos domínios da educação, saúde, apoio à agricultura e segurança», que visam «apoiar a população refugiada, mas também a comunidade local».

«Moçambique está a dar um exemplo ao mundo de uma política muito bem pensada. Temos que fazer tudo para apoiar Moçambique na concretização dessa política», notou.

Focus: Rudd as PM augurs well for the Pacific

The Nation (Papua New Guinea) – Wednesday August 22, 2007
By Dr Tim Anderson

What difference will the election of Labor leader Kevin Rudd as Australia’s next prime minister make for his Pacific neighbours? Will there be significant changes, or just more of the same?

Unlike the sometimes tumultuous democratic change elsewhere, Australian elections are a staid affair. But consistent polls tell us that a limited version of “regime change” is about to take place in Canberra.

The Rudd team has successfully marketed itself, and the investment groups, mining companies and corporate media which dominate Australian policy – despite their prior uncritical support for prime minister John Howard – broadly accept the proposed change. Media tycoon Rupert Murdoch even gave his personal blessing, after Rudd visited him in New York.

No small part of the Rudd team’s success has been the ugliness of the incumbents.

Domestic legitimacy was difficult to maintain in face of the unpopular privatisations, bloody war, racist policy towards immigrants and refugees, and attacks on domestic civil and industrial rights.

The Pacific legacy, similarly, is not pretty.

While preaching “good governance” and security in the region, intervention and corruption were hallmarks of the Howard administration.

Regional intervention was linked to commercial and strategic interest, but argued in the name of “stability” and “assistance”.

The Ramsi intervention in the Solomon Islands, although initially invited, led to a near collapse in relations between the Australian and Solomons governments.

The 2006 intervention in Timor Leste, following a long conflict over oil and gas revenue, affronted the major political party.

Fretilin now in opposition, blames Australia for backing a coup.

And the planned Enhanced Cooperation Programme for PNG collapsed after unconstitutional immunities sought for Australian officials were overturned in PNG’s Supreme Court.

Under Alexander Downer’s stewardship of foreign affairs and trade, the Australian Wheat Board (AWB) personnel paid nearly A$300 million in bribes to Saddam Hussein’s regime, to secure pre-invasion wheat contracts.

As an official inquiry showed, Downer then argued the case for Australian participation in the illegal invasion of Iraq, on the basis that support for the US-led war would benefit “Australia’s commercial position in Iraq”.

As it happened, exposure of the AWB scandal allowed the US to completely squeeze Australian wheat suppliers out of the Iraqi market.

Neighbouring leaders were treated with contempt.

When PNG Prime Minister Sir Michael Somare was forced to remove his shoes in Brisbane airport, Downer claimed this was a “standard operation” that applies to “everybody”.

Yet when US vice-president Dick Cheney arrived in Australia, state laws were changed overnight, at Howard and Downer’s request, to allow Cheney’s bodyguards to carry their weapons through the airport and onto the streets of Sydney.

Then as Solomons prime minister Manasseh Sogavare sought to appoint Australian lawyer Julian Moti as his attorney-general, Canberra and the Australian federal police decided they would sideline Moti with charges that he had engaged in child sex in Vanuatu.

In fact, Moti had been cleared of all charges and was not wanted in Vanuatu. His real offence, it seems, was that he had advised an inquiry into the role of Australian police in the April 2006 disturbances in Honiara.

When Moti passed through Port Moresby, the PNG Government did not comply with an Australian extradition request, and instead deported him to the Solomons, Howard and Downer then turned on the PNG Government.

With such a history, most Australians and their Pacific neighbours are keen to see the back of Howard.

Indeed, regime change in Canberra at the least brings the prospect of some new faces, and perhaps a change of tone in the conversation.

Rudd and his shadow foreign minister Robert McClelland may well take a step back from the overt racism that characterised the Howard-Downer regime, where neighbouring governments were bluntly told what was good for them.

This change in tone may be reflected in some actual policy changes, for example a resurgence in the teaching of Asian languages in Australian schools, and an increase in AusAID scholarships.

Rudd has spoken of a “Pacific Colombo Plan”, suggesting significant numbers of scholarships.

He has also indicated a planned increase in the AusAID budget, from 0.3% to 0.5% of GDP, by 2015-16.

Most of this, as we know, will return as “boomerang aid” to the handful of Australian
companies who are AusAID’s “preferred contractors”.

Nevertheless, aid money is clearly a central means by which Rudd hopes to rescue Australian influence. He recognises the damage Howard has done, speaking of a “long-term drift in Australia’s strategic standing right across this region” and expressing a desire to control “anti-Australianism” and avoid “costly military interventions”.

What might this mean in practice?

It may include increased intervention.

Rudd’s party now speaks of a “staged withdrawal” of troops from Iraq, but a build-up in
Afghanistan and the Pacific, possibly including Timor Leste.

The budget of the Australian Federal Police in the Pacific already nearly exceeds its domestic budget, but Rudd has promised them even greater resources.

Education aid will be targeted. Rudd will likely follow Howard in plans to increase scholarships to Timor Leste, now that Australian troops have helped sideline Fretilin.

Due to Howard’s chilly relations with the Alkatiri government, scholarships to Australian
universities for Timorese students had fallen from 20% a year to just 8% per year. That may now increase.

McClelland, who is likely to be the new foreign minister under a Rudd government, has spoken of Labor’s desire to train “a new generation of young leaders” from Timor Leste, PNG, the Solomons and Fiji, with greater Australian loyalties.

This brings us back to the continuities between Howard and Rudd. We can expect Rudd as prime minister to continue to back Australian mining companies and to work against potential competitors, in the Timor Sea and in PNG.

He will be hostile to plans to develop gas processing capacity in Timor Leste and PNG, if
Australian companies are not involved.

Rudd will probably continue Howard and Downer’s opposition to Cuban health and health training programmes in the region, but the opposition will remain private, because Australia cannot compete.

Timor Leste already has one of the fastest-growing health systems in the world,
largely thanks to Cuban generosity.

Relations with China are in a class apart, due to its economic power.

Rudd, who speaks Chinese, has said he will seek greater engagement with China while maintaining a strong alliance with the US.

A further continuity will be Rudd’s backing of the “open market” or export-oriented approach to agriculture.

This is dictated by the global ambitions of Australian agribusiness.

On this basis, Australia refused to help rebuild Timor Leste’s rice production after 1999, even though it sells no rice to that country.

Australia does have substantial rice exports to PNG, and typically does not support staple grain programmes.

A Labor government led by Rudd would not be quick to move on the “migrant worker” issue, because of trade union fears.

A possible breakthrough might come for skilled workers in the mining sector.

The simplest solution, of course, would be to extend to young Pacific people the backpacker visas now offered to young “working tourists” from wealthier countries such as Britain, Germany and South Korea.

However, residual racism in the Australian immigration system may make this difficult.

As Rudd says, he “will listen” to the region.

His background as a diplomat and a linguist give him some advantages, in this regard.

However as a technocrat – who quibbles more with Howard’s means than his ends – he can be expected to maintain support for all the important commercial and strategic interests backed by Howard.

The pressure and influence is likely to be less crass and less public, but somewhat more “backroom” and cheque-book driven.

Note: The author is a senior lecturer in Political Economy at the University of Sydney