There are some fundamental issues that are still yet to be resolved in Timor Leste. The President and the Prime Minister are now under greater scrutiny and some pressure to find solutions to the divisions in Timorese society and restoring normality. Reconciliation will be a difficult resolution mechanism considering the crisis originated from grievances citing discrimination from sections of the Military predominantly from the Wester Districts of Timor Leste.
Wether ethnical division was as a result of bad policy, spontaneous reactions, or an orchestrated plot to trigger conflict and depose Mari/FRETILIN from Government it is has opened up further issues that may be irreconcilable.
Much of the responsibility for that divide remains with the President the unifying symbol of Timor Leste who during the course of this crisis made various inflammatory remarks during Presidential addresses to the nation. His handling of the current crisis has been less than admirable when you consider the fact that the Constitution was in the verge of being breached on many occasions. The President who still commands tremendous respect in amongst the Timorese now has greater responsibility to heal the wombs of the current crisis, and not continue to blame everyone else for the country’s problems.
Making matters worse the President and Prime Minister is that in 10 months they must meet the expectations of the people of Timor Leste to deliver on:
. Reconciling and unifying Timor Leste;
. Finding a solution to the deserted soldiers (Alfredo), should they be reintegrated into the military?;
. Respond to the grievances of the Petiosioners who have been instrumental in rallying support for the Presidents call for Mari’s resignation;
. It must negotiate with the Military (FFDTL) to resolve the underlying Military issues;
. Providing confidence in security and return the internally displaced people home;
. Rebuild or build new homes;
. Re-establishing the Police force;
. Appeasing various individuals, groups, political parties including FRETILIN;
. Most importantly ensure that the next elections in order to establish a permanent government.
Not to mention the continual development and governance of the country.
There has not been a clear resolution, the establishment of the second Constitutional Government is only an temporary measure to a problem that will not go away within a short period of time.
Suffice to say that for now the President has succeeded in only restricting Mari for the time being from the current political climate.
FRETILIN in itself has not faltered as consequence of the crisis, it still has influence in the current Government, it still has great power to exercise from the Parliament neither of the two unconstitutional.
Should the Prosecutor General fail to take allegations against Mari beyond the summons, it puts Mari and FRETILIN in a strong position to contest the next elections and a possible return of Mari, which makes a mockery of the forced resignation.
There may be various allegations and arguments to say that Mari was responsible for the crisis.
These allegations are many and because of the number of unsubstantiated allegations arisen from the crisis (60 people killed at Tasi Tolu) it places any prosecution at risk because it portrays Mari as being prosecuted Politically rather than Legally.
This does not say that Mari is not guilty of any of the allegations put forward. It is of paramount importance that FRETILIN, the President and the current government do not to influence nor interfere with the legal procedures; an impartial legal ruling will ensure any decision made will not raise further issues.
This Government is restricted by the fact the Prime Minister is not a party member of FRETILIN which holds Parliamentary majority. It will be a Government and a President that will be hampered by time to resolve the issues emanating from the crisis and faces the risk of further discrediting their reputation should elections not take place that may lead to further crisis.
It is essentially a provisional government and will not be conducive for Timor Leste’s long term development.
A Government that is not a true representative of or having the support of the Political Party holding a majority in Parliament will not function effectively. Given the amount of responsibility and significant issues that may take years not months to resolve, the only real success this Government may achieve is establishing stability and security for free and fair elections in Timor Leste and in turn consolidating Democracy.
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segunda-feira, julho 10, 2006
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RECONCILIAÇÃO, UNIFICAÇÃO E NACIONALISMO, são as palavras que TIMOR precisa!
This text sums up quite well the enormity of the task ahead and correctly points out that such issues cannot be resolved within 10 months. For that very same reason the success of this new government cannot be measured in terms of achieving or not the resolution of all those issues but by its ability to lay the necessary grounds for the healing to take pleace and continue into the foreseeable future.
Unlike that which is postulated by the author, this situation very much discounts an ouright return of Alkatiri to politics or in the very least as a possible PM as that would translate into a reversal of all the healing work that will take place in the lead up to the 2007 elections. Thus, Alkatiri's possible return could have a catastrophic effect and could possibly plunge the country back into a new crisis. This decision and responsibility however rests squarely in the hands of Fretilin and the ability of its leadership to be able to place national interests ahead of its own or Mari Alkatiri political carreer.
There are however a few points which were not properly grasped by the author.
Firstly, the President was not the one who blamed this crisis on "everyone else" but simply on the government’s inability to handle the issue of the peticionaries and the subsequent crisis that derived from that. The ones blaming "everyone else" including foreign actors were infact Alkatiri himself and the hardcore fretilin leadership which have so far not been substantiated.
Secondly, the responsibility will not fall squarely on Xanana or Ramos Horta as such but instead the success of the new government will depend greatly on Fretilin showing to the people that despite all it is a politically mature party and genuinely more committed to bringing forth normality to the country rather than continuing with the strong arm stance of the past to the detriment of peace and stability of the country. That commitment should be clearly expressed through the establishment of a positive and fruitful cooperation and working relationship with its new PM and all state intitutions. It is also whorthwhile to note that despite an independent PM, the government remains very much a Fretilin government as a result of the party’s insistence. This can best be ilustrated through the authors own words which I quote:
“FRETILIN in itself has not faltered as consequence of the crisis, it still has influence in the current Government, it still has great power to exercise from the Parliament neither of the two unconstitutional.”
If it is true, as stated by Mari Alkatiri in the past, that only Fretilin can create stability or instability, the next 10 months will prove beyond reasonable doubt which one of those Fretilin is trully commited to achieve.
Tradução:
E agora?
Há algumas questões fundamentais que ainda estão por resolver em Timor-Leste. O Presidente e o Primeiro-Ministro estão agora sob maior escrutínio e alguma pressão para encontrar soluções para as divisões na sociedade Timorense e restaurar a normalidade. A reconciliação será um mecanismo de resolução difícil considerando que a crise foi originada por ofensas de discriminação a secções dos Militares predominantemente dos Distritos do Oeste de Timor-Leste.
Fosse a divisão étnica um resultado de má política, reacções espontâneas, ou uma manobra orquestrada para desencadear o conflito e depor Mari/FRETILIN do Governo, abriu novas questões que podem vir a ser irreconciliáveis.
Muita da responsabilidade dessa divisão é do Presidente o símbolo unificador de Timor-Leste que durante o percurso desta crise fez vários comentários inflamatórios em discursos Presidenciais à nação. O modo como geriu a crise corrente não é de louvar quando se considera que a Constituição esteve à beira de ser violada em muitas ocasiões. O Presidente que ainda goza de um tremendo respeito dos Timorenses tem agora mais responsabilidade no curar das feridas da crise corrente, e não deve continuar a culpar os outros pelos problemas do país.
Mas o que ainda é pior é que o Presidente e o Primeiro-Ministro têm 10 meses para corresponder às expectativas do povo de Timor-Leste no que respeita a:
. Reconciliar e unificar Timor Leste;
. Encontrar uma solução para os desertores (Alfredo), no caso deles serem reintegrados nas forças militares?;
. Responder às ofensas dos Peticionários que foram instrumentais em juntar apoio para o Presidente exigir a resignação de Mari;
. Obrigação de negociar com os Militares (FFDTL) para resolver as questões militares que subjazem;
. Providenciar confiança na segurança e o regresso dos deslocados a casa;
. Reconstruir ou construir novas casas;
. Re-estabelecer a Força da Polícia;
. Acalmar vários indivíduos, grupos, partidos politicos incluindo a FRETILIN;
. E de máxima importância assegurar que as próximas eleições se desenrolem em ordem para que se possa estabelecer um governo estável.
Nem sem mencionar a continuação do desenvolvimento e da governação do país.
Não houve uma resolução clara, o estabelecimento do Segundo Governo Constitucional é somente uma medida temporária para um problema que não se resolve num curto período de tempo.
Basta dizer que por agora o Presidente só teve sucesso em restringir Mari temporariamente neste clima político corrente.
A FRETILIN não foi arredada como consequência da crise, ainda tem influência no corrente Governo, ainda tem um grande poder no Parlamento nenhuma das duas situações é inconstitucional.
Se o Procurador-Geral falhar na prova das alegações contra Mari isso coloca Mari e a FRETILIN numa posição mais forte para concorrer nas próximas eleições e o possível regresso de Mari, o que transforma numa zombaria a resignação forçada.
Pode ter havido várias alegações e argumentos para dizer que Mari foi responsável pela crise.
Essas alegações são muitas e por causa do número de alegações sem substância que se levantaram na crise (60 pessoas mortas em Tasi Tolu) isso coloca qualquer prossecução em risco porque leva Mari a ser visto como perseguido políticamente mais do que legalmente.
Isto não significa que Mari não seja culpado das alegações levantadas. É da maior importância que nem a FRETILIN, o Presidente e o corrente governo não influenciem nem interfiram com os processos legais; um ordenamento imparcial legal assegurará que qualquer decisão não levante mais questões no futuro.
Este Governo está limitado pelo facto do Primeiro-Ministro não ser membro da FRETILIN que detém a maioria parlamentar. Será um Governo e um Presidente prejudicados pela urgência as questões que resultaram de crise presente e enfrenta o facto de se desacreditar se as eleições não se realizarem o que levará a nova crise.
É essencialmente um governo provisório e não conduzirá ao desenvolvimento a longo termo de Timor-Leste.
Um Governo que não é um verdadeiro representante ou que não tenha o apoio dos partidos políticos que têm uma maioria no Parlamento não funcionará efectivamente. Dadas as muitas responsabilidades e questões significativas que levam anos e não meses a resolver, o único sucesso real que este Governo pode ter é estabelecer estabilidade e segurança para que possa haver eleições livres e justas em Timor Leste que por sua vez consolidarão a Democracia.
In response to 8:15:56
"The ones blaming "everyone else" including foreign actors were infact Alkatiri himself and the hardcore fretilin leadership which have so far not been substantiated."
Alkatiri has not named specifically anyone as being responsible for the crisis. He has just indicated that he thinks he knows who it is, but that he is willing to wait for independent investigations. He also has said that he himself will accept his share of the responsibility, but that there are others who must do so as well.
As for FRETILIN wanting peace, I think the rally in Dili showed the political maturity of FRETILIN. FRETILIN will not cause any violence in Timor as it doesn't need to do this to win the hearts and minds of the people.
I don't agree with some of your observations, but at least your response was well thought out, unlike some of the other crap that is being published on this blog by certain people.
Reconhece-se aqui que afinal foram 60 os mortos em Tasitolo? Ainda não tinha percebido.
Está portanto em bom ritmo o plano da Fretilin - desestabilização caso não esteja no Poder?
Ao que parece, mesmo estando, como se viu e vê...
Não era mau a tradutora mencionar a fonte original de onde traduziu.
Pelo menos podemos ficar a saber onde ler o original.
O original está aí um pouco mais em baixo.
Anonymous 8:15:56 PM "this situation very much discounts an outright return of Alkatiri to politics or in the very least as a possible PM as that would translate into a reversal of all the healing work that will take place in the lead up to the 2007 elections."
On the contrary, Mari has not left Politics altogether. He is still highly regarded by the FRETILIN leadership (both "hardcore" or moderate), he has for now integrated in Parliament and he is still the Secretary General of FRETILIN. As pointed out if Mari is found not to be responsible for any of the allegations against him , I don’t see why he cannot return to politics.
There are two fundamental questions left out;
Was the crisis orchestrated (Coup d'état)?
What if FRETILIN wins the Election in 2007 by the same margin?
These two questions are fundamental in respect to Democracy
If Mari is not found responsible for any of the allegations against him, I don’t see why he cannot return to politics or the Prime Ministership. This takes into the fact that he is still the Secretary General of FRETILIN a post which normally assumes the Prime Ministership if FRETILIN wins an election. I think if it is substantiated that the crisis was orchestrated and FRETILIN wins the elections and Mari is still the Secretary General he would be a strong candidate for the Prime Minister. I think in this scenario only Mari would rule himself out of the Prime Ministership.
Hence in this scenario unfolds then anything to the extent anonymous 8:15:56 PM points out “Alkatiri's possible return could have a catastrophic effect and could possibly plunge the country back into a new crisis.” amounts to threats on Democracy itself, should FRETILIN return with the same majority it has every right to choose the Prime Minister and be respected for that. As to wether possibly plunging the country to crisis, it is the responsibility of all political leaders to respect the results of any free and fair elections.
But alas, all depends on the Prosecutor General succeeding in finding a strong case against Mari, and whether FRETILIN wins the next election while Mari is Secretary General of the Party. The question of the crisis being orchestrated, if FRETILIN wins the elections then it should have the maturity to look forward and reconcile with all other Political parties including Independents.
The healing process should begin with al leaders of our society Political and Civic respecting the results of any free and fair elections.
Anonymous 8:23:01 AM.
Your arguments are sound in principle but based on idealism, a view of how the world should be and how people should react.
The game of politics is not governed by idealism but pragmatism. The scenario put forward by me is based on a pragmatic view of the world and people and a description of a very likely result should Fretilin insist holding on to Alkatiri as a candidate for PM.
I was not making a moral judgement on the righteousness of such scenario but merely stating the obvious.
Having said that I think Alkatiri himself understands such possibility when he suggested in an interview that maybe Fretilin should choose other names for the position.
Emotions aside, It is very hard for anyone to refute that regardless of the outcome of the investigations Alkatiri's image has been severely tarnished and his candidacy for Prime Ministership will not only trigger anxiety amongst the people in general but more importantly within Fretilin itself.
Fretilin needs to consolidate its position in readiness for the next election through a leader whose standing can span across the divide within the party itself. Whether Fretilin has this person or not is another matter. However, no one can convincingly argue that Alkatiri is still such person as this latest crisis has showed there to be an increasing opposition to his leadership. This opposition could be suficient to further unsettle the party's cohesiveness and jeopardise Fretilin's chances at the next elections if they are not brought back on board under a more unifying leadership.
If the current leadership chooses to ignore this it will do so to the party's own detriment. Despite claims to the contrary, Fretilin has been severely affected by this crisis and could well fail the test come next election if it does not fully heals its wounds.
I understand where you are coming from, and respect your views as it is well thought out and conducive for a debate but you must understand that Timorese Politics has much to do with idealism as pragmatism.
Such as the influence of Xanana during the removal of Mari. Even though some may not agree Xanana was as much idealistic in resolving the crisis. Though various speeches the PR made were clearly inflamatory remarks and was the root cause of some ethnic violence, he remained silent during much of the crisis and only became critical when the crisis was beginning to flare out of control (he was slow in his reactions to resolve the crisis from the beginning in January when the rebel soldiers compiled a petition). In a pragmatic political environment this would have been the the end of any political career. But Xanana like Timorese politics also thrives well in an idealistic environment.
Contrary to your opinion the PR was unable to reduce the influence of FRETILIN, because the PR managed to remove Mari from the PM but not FRETILIN from the Parliament, something at many instances he threatened quite strongly to do.
Pending the outcome of the summons, I dont think FRETILIN will change much before the elections. It may appear on the surface that FRETILIN may need to consolidate itself through internal changes, but FRETILIN exists beyond the confines and politics of Dili. It is in the rural areas of Timor where the majority of the Timorese population and its supporters are, it is there where there were no signs of the violence or burning of houses.
I am not arguing that Mari should be the next PM, what I have said is the option for Mari to become Prime Minister again is still open. FRETILIN is a disciplined unit, it existed 25 years in worse circumtances, it has lost greater leaders yet it prevailed without much changes to the leadership style and changes to the current leadership. It is my opinion that it will also not change for a problem that has affected mostly Dili in only a space of around 3 to 4 months.
Should FRETIIN fail in the next elections I think there is no doubt there will be compunding changes within FRETILIN, then we can confidently say that Mari is out of the Political picture, something I am sure Horta and Xanana would welcome.
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