Unstable coalitions predicted after Timor vote

ABC – Transcript PM Programme - Friday, 29 June , 2007 18:31


Reporter: Geoff Thompson

Mark Colvin: It's been a long year for East Timor.
The crisis which erupted violently 12 months ago culminates tomorrow in a poll electing a new parliament and eventually a new Prime Minister.

The controversial circumstances of Mari Alkatiri's ousting from the Prime Ministership broke Fretilin's hold on East Timor's politics.
It also inspired the man who used to lead Fretilin's military activities against Indonesia, former President Xanana Gusmao to form a new party.
That party hopes to come out on top tomorrow.

But outright majorities are much less likely than unstable coalitions as our correspondent Geoff Thompson reports from Dili.

(sound of political campaign rally)
Geoff Thompson: Five years ago, Fretilin was synonymous with East Timor's identity as a new, unified nation.

But now, it's just as much a symbol of the country's divisions.
But you wouldn't know it here, at the campaign rally finale for the Party at Dili Sport Stadium. Draped and painted, in red, yellow and black from head to toe, the Party's youth get high on a temporary diversion form the grinding reality of having little work, or other ways of spending their time.

A year ago, many of them would have been roaming the streets on rampages of destruction. So this loud but peaceful politicking is progress nevertheless.
While he says he does not wish to regain the PMs job, on stage it's clear that Mari Alkatiri has learnt some valuable political lessons to. He smiles and sings a long with the crowd while holding a baby, looking every a bit the populist politician he admits he never managed to be when he was Prime Minister.
Mari Alkatiri: This is the reality, we failed in communicate all what we have done to the people. That's the reason why we were commended by the international community (inaudible) years. The tremendous achievement we have made in this country.

Geoff Thompson: Few foreign analysts criticise the job Fretilin did as economic managers. But the distribution of arms to civilians by the jailed, former Interior Minister, Rogerio Lobato, sealed Mari Alkatiri's fall from grace.
(sound of political protest rally)

It's into the gap left behind, that Xanana Gusmao's new Party, CNRT, hopes to rise. Posters around Dili show the former Resistance leader alongside towering skyscrapers, reminiscent of Gold Coast development and even one, boasting East Timor's own satellite and fighter jets.

But in the real world, he's running for Office, based on the pitch that he stands for everything that Fretilin does not.
Supporter (translated): Two or three people leading the big political party have broken our nation's unity and stability, he tells his supporters. They've made the people suffer and the nation sick, he says.

(sound of clapping and cheering from the crowd)
Geoff Thompson: Mari Alkatiri remains bitterly critical of East Timor's former President, saying that Xanana Gusmao thinks, "he is commander of all East Timorese and as a leader, has little more than charisma in his quiver."
Mari Alkatiri: Xanana Gusmao has no skill as a, to be a Prime Minister. He like very much to have everybody under him and under his command. This is the only way he like to do the things.

Geoff Thompson: Just who would be elected to guide East Timor out of its current crisis is likely to be decided by smaller parties. The biggest among them is the Democratic Party, known as PD, and expects to side with Gusmao's CNRT. Last time round, in ran second to Fretilin and has a huge following among East Timor's disgruntled youth.

Preliminary results on the percentages of votes going to the 14 parties running should be known by early next week. But the exact composition of any ruling Coalition, may not be known for weeks.In Dili, this is Geoff Thompson for PM.