De um leitor:
I understand where you are coming from, and respect your views as it is well thought out and conducive for a debate but you must understand that Timorese Politics has much to do with idealism as pragmatism.
Such as the influence of Xanana during the removal of Mari. Even though some may not agree Xanana was as much idealistic in resolving the crisis. Though various speeches the PR made were clearly inflamatory remarks and was the root cause of some ethnic violence, he remained silent during much of the crisis and only became critical when the crisis was beginning to flare out of control (he was slow in his reactions to resolve the crisis from the beginning in January when the rebel soldiers compiled a petition). In a pragmatic political environment this would have been the the end of any political career. But Xanana like Timorese politics also thrives well in an idealistic environment.
Contrary to your opinion the PR was unable to reduce the influence of FRETILIN, because the PR managed to remove Mari from the PM but not FRETILIN from the Parliament, something at many instances he threatened quite strongly to do.
Pending the outcome of the summons, I dont think FRETILIN will change much before the elections. It may appear on the surface that FRETILIN may need to consolidate itself through internal changes, but FRETILIN exists beyond the confines and politics of Dili. It is in the rural areas of Timor where the majority of the Timorese population and its supporters are, it is there where there were no signs of the violence or burning of houses.
I am not arguing that Mari should be the next PM, what I have said is the option for Mari to become Prime Minister again is still open. FRETILIN is a disciplined unit, it existed 25 years in worse circumtances, it has lost greater leaders yet it prevailed without much changes to the leadership style and changes to the current leadership. It is my opinion that it will also not change for a problem that has affected mostly Dili in only a space of around 3 to 4 months.
Should FRETIIN fail in the next elections I think there is no doubt there will be compunding changes within FRETILIN, then we can confidently say that Mari is out of the Political picture, something I am sure Horta and Xanana would welcome.
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terça-feira, julho 11, 2006
The healing process. Free and fair elections. (III)
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3 comentários:
I understand where you are coming from, and respect your views as it is well thought out and conducive for a debate but you must understand that Timorese Politics has much to do with idealism as pragmatism.
Such as the influence of Xanana during the removal of Mari. Even though some may not agree Xanana was as much idealistic in resolving the crisis. Though various speeches the PR made were clearly inflamatory remarks and was the root cause of some ethnic violence, he remained silent during much of the crisis and only became critical when the crisis was beginning to flare out of control (he was slow in his reactions to resolve the crisis from the beginning in January when the rebel soldiers compiled a petition). In a pragmatic political environment this would have been the the end of any political career. But Xanana like Timorese politics also thrives well in an idealistic environment.
Contrary to your opinion the PR was unable to reduce the influence of FRETILIN, because the PR managed to remove Mari from the PM but not FRETILIN from the Parliament, something at many instances he threatened quite strongly to do.
Pending the outcome of the summons, I dont think FRETILIN will change much before the elections. It may appear on the surface that FRETILIN may need to consolidate itself through internal changes, but FRETILIN exists beyond the confines and politics of Dili. It is in the rural areas of Timor where the majority of the Timorese population and its supporters are, it is there where there were no signs of the violence or burning of houses.
I am not arguing that Mari should be the next PM, what I have said is the option for Mari to become Prime Minister again is still open. FRETILIN is a disciplined unit, it existed 25 years in worse circumtances, it has lost greater leaders yet it prevailed without much changes to the leadership style and changes to the current leadership. It is my opinion that it will also not change for a problem that has affected mostly Dili in only a space of around 3 to 4 months.
Should FRETIIN fail in the next elections I think there is no doubt there will be compunding changes within FRETILIN, then we can confidently say that Mari is out of the Political picture, something I am sure Horta and Xanana would welcome.
It is perhaps then the idealism embbeded in the Timorese politics that is the source of recurrent instability given that ideals will vary from individual to individual with a vast array of supporting arguments for each position. However, we know as a matter of principle that the welfare of a nation must be driven by the type of political pragmatism that sees the right decisions being made not, to only serve sectarian interests, but the interests of the nation as a whole.
Here we must remove ourselves from the notion of politics serving local political groups and concentrate on the other kind of politics and decisions that need to be made in order to serve national interests. Thus, I propose to place the debate in that context.
For this purpose I will not engage in a lengthy discussion on the merit or fault of the local actors such as the President or the former PM but merely take as the starting point the political and military crisis that the country has just gone through, its real impacts for East Timor as a nation in a community of nations.
My previous coment was not in any way developed to argue that the President has irreparably undermined Fretilin’s worth as a political organisation or its resiliance in the face of adversity but merely to state that Dr. Mari Alkatiri, unjustly or not, is no longer a unifying figure in the Timorese political landscape. He could well maintain a prominent role and influence within Fretilin as a political party but a Prime Minister, as the head of a national government, must be an acceptable unifying force well beyond party boundaries and into the national realm. This I believe is a role that Dr. Mari Alkatiri can no longer fulfill not because he is not a capable politician but because he’s public image has suffered greatly in this crisis.
I believe you are seriously understating the impact of this crisis when you argue that it was confined to Dili and that the rural areas were undisturbed. Again this might be true locally and in terms of the impact on Fretilin but the real damage to Timor as a nation was great and it will be felt for many years to come.
East Timor was slowly establishing itself as a stable country in the international community, a pre-requisite for the desperately needed foreign investment and the development of a strong private sector that can serve as the driving force for a heakthy national economy.
This crisis has managed to undo all that. It was already a difficult task to attract foreign investment in the non-oil sector before the crisis, we now face an even bigger battle not only to attract new investors but also the ones that have now left and to keep others that are still considering their fates.
Needless to say that the major influential factor for the latter will be the perceived capacity of East Timor to once again restore and maintain steady political stability.
In this sense, and as argued previously, a possible return of Dr. Mari Alkatiri as the head of government will create an atmosphere of anxiety locally and in the international business community and a sense of more political instability along the road. Timor will present itself as a sleeping volcano prone to erupt again and unexpectedly. For foreign investors East Timor will be too risky a place in which to conduct business. Taking into account that East Timor was, for many reasons such as comparatively high salaries, lack of adequate infra-structure, etc, already uncompetitive in the region the possibility of future political instability would effectively remove it from the highly competitive race of attracting scarse foreign dollars.
For these very reasons I argue that Fretilin, being the majority party that it still is, must make pragmatic decisions based on national interests rather the party pride. It must be able to show that the political career of one person is not above national interests.
I argue that “the whole is more than the sum of its parts” and therefore Xanana, Mari Alkatiri, Ramos Horta or anyone else (the parts) are expendable when their continuation, unjustly or not, undermines the interests of the “whole”.
I agree that if cleared of all charges Dr. Mari Alkatiri has the right to pursue his political career as the PM but the question is whether that would be in the nation’s interests.
This is the reason why I previously argued that: “If it is true, as stated by Mari Alkatiri in the past, that only Fretilin can create stability or instability, the next 10 months will prove beyond reasonable doubt which one of those Fretilin is trully commited to achieve.”
Tradução:
O processo de cura. Eleições livres e justas. (III)
De um leitor:
Compreendo donde vem, e respeito as suas ideias dado que estão bem construídas e dirigidas para o debate mas deve compreender que a política Timorense tem muito a ver com idealismo e pragmatismo.
Tal como foi a influência de Xanana durante a remoção de Mari. Mesmo apesar de alguns não concordarem, Xanana foi muito idealista na resolução da crise. Apesar de nos vários discursos que o PR fez terem claramente comentários inflamatórios e serem a raíz dalguma violência étnica, ele manteve-se calado durante a maior parte da crise e só se tornou crítico quando a crise ameaçava fugir do controlo (foi lento nas suas reacções em resolver a crise desde o princípio em Janeiro quando os soldados rebeldes fizeram uma petição). Num ambiente politico pragmático isto teria sido o final de qualquer carreira politica. Mas Xanana, como os politicos Timorenses também se dá bem com um ambiente idealista.
Ao contrário da sua opinião o PR não foi capaz de reduzir a influência da FRETILIN, porque o PR manobrou para remover Mari do cargo de PM mas não a FRETILIN do Parlamento, uma coisa que várias vezes ele ameaçou, bastante fortemente, fazer.
Dependente do resultado dos interrogatórios, não penso que a FRETILIN mude muito antes das eleições. Pode parecer à superfície que a FRETILIN precise de consolidar-se através de mudanças internas, mas a FRETILIN existe para além dos limites e dos políticos de Dili. É nas áreas rurais de Timor que está a maioria da população e dos apoiantes, é lá que não há sinais de violência e de casas queimadas.
Não estou a defender que Mari deva ser o próximo PM, o que estou a dizer é que a opção para Mari ser o Primeiro-Ministro outra vez ainda está aberta. A FRETILIN é uma unidade disciplinada, existiu 25 anos em circunstâncias piores, perdeu líderes maiores, contudo prevaleceu sem grandes mudanças no estilo da liderança e sem mudanças na liderança corrente. É minha opinião que não mudará por causa de um problema que afectou maioritariamente Dili num espaço de cerca de 3 a 4 meses.
Caso a FRETIIN falhe nas próximas eleições penso que sem dúvida haverá mudanças no seio da FRETILIN, então poderemos dizer com confiança que Mari está fora do retrato político, coisa a que tenho a certeza Horta e Xanana darão as boas vindas
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