Test for Democracy in East Timor

Epoch Times - Apr 10, 2007
By Shar Adams, Epoch Times Brisbane staff

It will be up to East Timor’s incumbent party, Fretilin, to determine how the small island state moves forward following its recent presidential elections, says East Timor analyst Francisco da Costa Guterres.

Speaking from Dili on Tuesday April 10, Mr Guterres told The Epoch Times that the atmosphere was presently peaceful following the country’s first democratic elections since independence from Indonesian in 1999, but violence could easily flare if polling, as many observers expect, does not go Fretilin’s way.

“I am not sure whether Fretilin will accept the results,” Mr Guterres said. “If Fretilin loses then I am quite afraid we will have a violence. That will destroy the whole forces of democratic development.”

At the time of going to print, Fretilin was polling worse than expected and it appeared voters were showing support for other candidates, especially current Prime Minister Jose Ramos Horta. More than 500,000 voters turned out on April 9 to choose a President from a field of eight candidates. While a number of interests have been represented, including the tribal chiefs, only three candidates are thought to have a chance—Mr Ramos-Horta; parliamentary speaker and veteran of Fretilin, Francisco “Lu Olo” Guterres; and founder of the student resistance movement the Democratic Party’s, Fernando "Lasama" de Araujo. As candidates must gain over 50 per cent of the primary vote, Mr Guterras said it was unlikely a winner would be selected in the first round of voting. Instead, he expected that Mr Ramos-Horta, who is standing as an independent, would lead one coalition of candidates and it would be between “Lu Olo” and “Lasama” to see who would represent the others. A second round or “run off” election between the two Presidential candidates could then be expected around early May.

The East Timorese Presidency is considered a purely ceremonial role, but the latest elections are understood to be a test case for how voters would cast their ballots in parliamentary elections, due to be held in late June or early July this year. “Whoever wins the presidential, definitely they will win the next election,” Mr Guterres said.

A political analyst who works at the Timor Institute in Dili, Mr Guterres said the East Timorese people had given Fretilin a chance but conditions in Timor had not improved during their governance and the East Timorese were ready for change.

“Fretilin has had the chance of four or five years. They did not deliver any significant development to the people.

“They [the people] want change. They want a new regime. A regime that can provide stability economic development, a regime that can help them get out from poverty,” he said.

The opposition parties had proven they could accept the will of the people by stepping back after the first election and giving Fretilin a chance, Mr Guterres said, now it would be Fretilin’s turn to show political maturity if Lu Olo did not win.

“This is going to be huge test for our democracy,” he said.

East Timor has been plagued with unrest since independance, the last major outbreak in May 2006 when an Australian led international peacekeeping force was called in to quell fighting between rebel groups, led by former East Timorese military leader, Alfredo Reinardo and government forces.

Major Reinardo who remains at large after escaping arrest, has said he would be willing to negotiate with the then President Xanana Gusmao but rejected the authority of the East Timorese Government.

“My supreme commander is the President. I receive orders from the President. I'm not receiving orders from [the] Prime Minister,” he told the ABC.

Mr Guterres said little had been heard from Major Reinardo during the election but the military leader still had plenty of influence and he believed he would be telling his supporters to vote for the opposition candidates.

“I have not heard anything from him at this stage, but I think he is expecting that the result should not go in favour of Fretilin. I think he has support for other candidates but not for Fretilin.”

“On the Fretilin side it will be difficult to reconcile Reinardo and Fretilin. It is going to be a huge difficulty so I think if Lu Olo and Horta go into the second round, I think Reinardo would prefer to vote for Horta,” Mr Guterres said. “With Horta I think they can reconcile.”

Over 3,000 international peace keeping forces, mainly from Australian and New Zealand, and more than 1800 observers have been deployed around East Timor to supervise the polls.