East Timor election: counting continues

Transcript
This is a transcript from PM. The program is broadcast around Australia at 5:10pm on Radio National and 6:10pm on ABC Local Radio.

PM - Tuesday, 10 April , 2007 18:18:22
Reporter: Anne Barker

PETER CAVE: Counting is continuing in East Timor's first presidential elections and although what are being called technical problems are slowing down the count in districts outside the capital Dili, some observers are suggesting that the Fretilin candidate Francisco "Lu-Olo" Guterres may not even make it onto the ballot for what is increasingly looking like a second round of voting next month.

In Dili, with all but a handful of provision results now in, East Timor's current Prime Minister Jose Ramos Horta is leading with 30 per cent of the vote.

Our Correspondent Anne Barker is in Dili.

(to Anne Barker) Anne what are those technical problems that are slowing down the vote?

ANNE BARKER: Peter they seem to be fairly mundane, fairly minor glitches. There were some computer problems and electricity problems, even a generator, but because they were happening in remote areas where those things are obviously very important, especially for communications back with the capital, they have delayed, not so much the counting, but the transmission of that count back to Dili.

So, at this stage we've only got very rough figures from Dili. The individual booths that were counted last night and very little in the way of indications of just how the vote went in those outer areas.

PETER CAVE: I heard Australia's chief observer David Tollner quoted as saying that the slow count was a result of everything being made so transparent, are other international observers equally impressed with the conduct of the election?

ANNE BARKER: They are. And I think they're actually quite amazed that things went as smoothly and as peacefully as they did.

The United Nation's Head of Mission here, Atul Khare, today said that he's lived in or visited 93 countries, particularly working for the UN, and he said he's seen nothing like it. There was no murder, no assaults, no public disturbance, nothing at all. Not a single police report from around the country.

That is quite amazing when you consider there have been a few skirmishes and quite a lot of violence going back over the months since last year. But certainly in this election campaign it wasn't smooth sailing until the day itself.

So, certainly everybody is very happy. There was a huge turnout, it ran very peacefully and it was very smooth.

PETER CAVE: What's it been like today?

ANNE BARKER: Well today has been very quite actually. People have sort of gone back to their daily jobs. The polling booths were mostly held in schools. The schools are obviously open again after Easter and its children there now instead of politicians.

So, it's very much a waiting game.

You see people on the street corners reading the newspapers. The papers here are obviously full of the election and people are just waiting to hear, hopefully in the next day or so, just what the result will be.

PETER CAVE: I suppose it's not surprising that the Prime Minister is leading in Dili on that rough count that's in now, but are there any indications of what's happening in the east of the country, where Fretilin has its major power base?

ANNE BARKER: Well, if you speak to Fretilin, certainly they are confident that that's where they will win their strongest votes.

And it makes sense that Jose Ramos Horta would do well in Dili. He is known here, this is where he lives and works and people in Dili are probably more likely to have televisions and newspapers and probably recognise him, whereas, once you get out into those very remote areas he's a lesser known quantity.

Of course "Lu-Olo" too is probably not very well known outside of Dili either, but the Fretilin flag has played a very big part of their campaign. Everybody in East Timor knows the Fretilin flag, and in many cases I would hazard to guess that was enough for people to vote for him, simply because he's associated with that flag.

PETER CAVE: Where are those reports coming from that Fretilin may not even make it onto the next ballot?

ANNE BARKER: Well in Dili there have been some booths where "Lu-Olo" didn't even come second in the vote. He was third, fourth and I'm told even fifth in some cases.

Now, one observer I spoke to said, it was a bit confusing actually talking to him because on the one hand we don't have very many results from the regions, but he did say he's not aware of anywhere where "Lu-Olo" has actually won the vote.

So, today we were told that in Dili the leader of the Democratic Party in fact has polled roughly 25 per cent in Dili, whereas "Lu-Olo" has polled only about 20 per cent.

So if the top two candidates are Jose Ramos Horta and Fernando de Araujo or "Lasama" as he goes by, they will be the two people to go to a run-off election next month and not "Lu-Olo". It's no certainty that "Lu-Olo" will be the second person on that ballot paper.

PETER CAVE: Will a loss in the presidential election necessarily harm Fretilin's chances in the arguably much more important elections, the parliamentary elections later this year?

ANNE BARKER: Well look, yes and no.

I mean some people suggest that if you vote for someone other than Fretilin in the presidential poll then perhaps it's a bit like the Australian House of Representatives and the Senate, that you'll want a balance of power and you'll share the power between Fretilin perhaps at the Government level but someone else at the presidential level.

But I think that it's more likely that if Fretilin wins the presidential election this time round, that will suggest there is a strong enough support there for them to perhaps return to Government as well.

I think in many ways this is the first election since last year's violence so it's very much a litmus test as to people's attitudes towards Fretilin, because the party was blamed for a lot of last year's crisis.

And so if they're confident enough to put a Fretilin candidate as President, it might well suggest that they're prepared to re-elect a Fretilin Government in June.

PETER CAVE: Anne Barker live on the line from Dili.